My Oscar Nomination Predictions

Drumroll please...

The Oscar nominations are officially announced this Thursday, January 10th very early in the morning. Here are my predictions for the top categories. Of course, these are always subject to change before the actual nominations are announced. Look for Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Les Miserables and Argo to lead the pack in what ended up being a great year at the movies.

The Oscars are televised on ABC-TV on Sunday, February 24th at 7 pm central.

Best Picture
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Since this was a good year for movies, I think there will be a full 10 nominees this year. The top five listed here are all but certainties, with the remaining five strong bets. The Academy could glean from a host of different films to fill the slots, including, Skyfall, The Impossible, Flight, The Master, The Dark Knight Rises, Amour and The Hobbit, but I think they might go to SAG nominee The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, a popular but slightly odd choice. Though my personal fave is Silver Linings Playbook, I think it will likely come down to a tight race between the contemporary Zero Dark Thirty and the historical Lincoln.

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Denzel Washington, Flight
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

The first four actors are locks to get in. There are plenty of great performances to choose from for the fifth slot. The one that most comes to mind is Globe nominee Joaquin Phoenix's strong turn in The Master and many feel he will still make it, but he seems to lost some momentum since the film opened in early fall (and SAG overlooked him), so the final slot will would likely go to SAG and Globe nominee Jackman as Jean Valjean in the popular movie musical Les Miserables. Whatever happens there, this is still Daniel Day-Lewis' to lose, though my personal favorite is Washington's tour-de-force turn in Flight.

Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Lawrence, Chastain and Watts are all in for sure. Since this was a weak year overall for strong American female lead performances, I believe the final two slots will go foreign language films, Cotillard in France's Rust and Bone and Riva in Austria's Amour, who at age 85 would be the oldest nominee ever in this category. The Golden Globes and the SAG Awards were a little all over the place, with noms for Helen Mirren for Hitchcock (strong performance in a weak film), Rachel Weisz in the little-seen The Deep Blue Sea and Judi Dench for the popular The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. There's also a small chance that Quvenzhane Wallis could make it in for her amazing turn in the acclaimed independent drama Beasts of the Southern Wild, but at just 9 years old many (including me) feel she's too young. This race is shaping up to be one between two rising young actresses, Lawrence and Chastain.

Best Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

I've always said the supporting acting awards are often the most unpredictable, and this year is no different, though Anne Hathaway's remarkable turn in Les Miserables has already emerged as the clear front runner in this category. Hathaway, Field and Hunt are certain nominees. The final two could be filled by varied, eclectic performances; speaking of that, both the SAG and the Golden Globes nominated Nicole Kidman for her blowsy, hammy turn in the poorly-received, little-seen The Paperboy, so she could easily get a nod, but I think the Academy will stick to a much safer candidate in British favorite (and two-time Oscar winner) Maggie Smith for the crowd-pleasing The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and for past Oscar nominee Amy Adams for her excellent, creepy turn in Paul Thomas Anderson's The Master.

Best Supporting Actor
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Alan Arkin, Argo
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Javier Bardem, Skyfall

In a category that will likely be filled by previous Oscar-winners, the first four are all in easily. The final slot could go to one of many. Dwight Henry from Beasts of the Southern Wild, Christoph Waltz and Leonardo DiCaprio from Django Unchained, Ewan McGregor and Tom Holland from The Impossible are all possibilites. In a perfect world, it'd be nice to see Australian actor Jason Clarke's excellent turn in Zero Dark Thirty nominated (and if the film picks up enough noms, it could very well happen). However, I think the Academy will go with SAG nominee and previous Oscar-winner Bardem's truly creepy turn in Skyfall, throwing a bone to one of the best-reviewed films of the year and the highest grossing Bond film ever. This category will probably end up a neck-and-neck race between Jones and Arkin.

Best Director
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck, Argo
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Best Director this year is a difficult one to choose from due to some great films. Based on all I've seen so far, the first four are easily in. Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained, Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom, David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook and Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master all could make the cut, but I think the fifth slot will go to Tom Hooper for the SAG and Globe-nominated Les Miserables, though this category is always open for a nice surprise. It looks to be shaping up to be a race between Spielberg and Bigelow.

Best Animated Film
Brave
Wreck-It-Ralph
Frankenweenie
Rise of the Guardians
ParaNorman

Disney/Pixar will likely again dominate here, so it's no surprise seeing Brave, Wreck-It-Ralph and Frankenweenie all in the mix here.